CRU Economic Outlook and Risks for 2019 Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks Question Title * 1. CRU estimates the global economy expanded by 3.1% in 2018. We expect growth of around 3% in 2019 as well. Which statement fits your view of global GDP growth in 2019? (Required.) Growth will be significantly faster than 3% Growth will be faster than 3% Growth will be about the same Growth will be slower than 3% Growth will be significantly slower than 3% Question Title * 2. What are the main downside risks to global growth during the next 12 months? (Choose up to 3) (Required.) Brexit “no deal” Central banks tighten too much, too fast (i.e. higher interest rates, less QE) Eurozone downturn (due to trade war, Italian crisis, politics, etc.) China sharp downturn Emerging market currency contagion Oil prices exceed $100/bbl US imposes additional tariffs (China, autos, etc. ) Other (please specify): Question Title * 3. What factors provide upside potential for growth during the next 12 months? (Choose up to 3) (Required.) Central banks delay monetary tightening (i.e. lower inflation pressure) China implements infrastructure stimulus Emerging markets increase fiscal stimulus (lower taxes, higher government spending, etc.) US growth accelerates in a delayed response to fiscal stimulus of 2018 US lessens protectionist measures / reduces tariffs Weaker $ boosts commodity prices / emerging markets expand faster Other (please specify): Question Title * 4. Based on the strength in US economic momentum, a US recession is unlikely in the next 12 months. Which statement is closest to your view regarding the potential trigger for the next US recession? (Required.) The Fed will raise rates too far, too fast High corporate debt (i.e. causes a drop in capital outlays) US fiscal deficits and debt (i.e. constrain government spending) High import costs / reduced export potential Another financial / asset bubble Question Title * 5. The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently $1.14/1€. The ECB is expected to raise rates after “summer 2019”. CRU expects the $ to weaken in response to the ECB rate increase. Which reflects your opinion of CRU’s view? (Required.) I strongly agree I agree I disagree I strongly disagree The ECB will not raise rates in 2019 Question Title * 6. In 2019, the average price of Brent crude oil will be: (Required.) $100 or above $90-99/bbl $80-89/bbl $70-79/bbl $60-69/bbl $50-59/bbl Under $50/bbl Submit