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Page: Core questions
1. How do you assess the overall condition of the U.S. economy right now?
 answered question48
 
skipped question
1
 Strong and growingStrong with uncertain growthMixedFacing recessionWeak and recessingN/ARating
Average
Rating
Count
Select One2.1% (1)10.4% (5)72.9% (35)12.5% (6)2.1% (1)0.0% (0)2.9848

2. What five adjectives would you use to describe the overall condition of the U.S. economy right now?
 answered question46
 
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3
 Response
Count
 46

3. Is the U.S. economy doing better or worse than official government statistics show?
 answered question48
 
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1
 BetterSameWorseN/ARating
Average
Rating
Count
Select One6.3% (3)58.3% (28)33.3% (16)2.1% (1)1.7248

4. What are the prospects for the following over the next 3 years (in the U.S. unless stated otherwise)?
 answered question49
 
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 Increasing stronglyIncreasingAbout the sameDecreasingDecreasing stronglyDon't know / Not applicableRating
Average
Rating
Count
Employment4.1% (2)46.9% (23)38.8% (19)8.2% (4)0.0% (0)2.0% (1)3.4849
GDP per capita0.0% (0)52.1% (25)29.2% (14)16.7% (8)0.0% (0)2.1% (1)3.3648
Budget deficit (annual)4.1% (2)42.9% (21)20.4% (10)30.6% (15)2.0% (1)0.0% (0)3.1649
Inflation0.0% (0)46.9% (23)49.0% (24)4.1% (2)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)3.4349
Interest rates (real)2.0% (1)55.1% (27)36.7% (18)2.0% (1)0.0% (0)4.1% (2)3.6049
Stock market4.1% (2)44.9% (22)42.9% (21)4.1% (2)2.0% (1)2.0% (1)3.4649
Global output12.2% (6)53.1% (26)22.4% (11)10.2% (5)0.0% (0)2.0% (1)3.6949
Poverty2.0% (1)32.7% (16)36.7% (18)26.5% (13)0.0% (0)2.0% (1)3.1049
Labor Force Participation0.0% (0)40.4% (19)38.3% (18)17.0% (8)2.1% (1)2.1% (1)3.2047

5. Is the U.S. federal government too involved in the U.S. economy?
 answered question47
 
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 YesMixed / about rightNoN/ARating
Average
Rating
Count
Select One59.6% (28)17.0% (8)23.4% (11)0.0% (0)2.3647

6. The U.S. federal government should ...
 answered question49
 
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 Strongly AgreeAgreeDisagreeStrongly DisagreeRating
Average
Rating
Count
Allow states to set their own minimum wage23.4% (11)42.6% (20)17.0% (8)17.0% (8)2.2847
Adopt the "Buffet Rule" - a new federal minimum income tax for high incomes15.2% (7)26.1% (12)26.1% (12)32.6% (15)2.7646
Adopt a single rate income tax on all incomes above a poverty threshold16.7% (8)33.3% (16)25.0% (12)25.0% (12)2.5848
Cap tax credits & deductions per household17.4% (8)43.5% (20)32.6% (15)6.5% (3)2.2846
Adopt a VAT as part of revenue neutral tax reform14.3% (7)30.6% (15)26.5% (13)28.6% (14)2.6949
Do more to reduce inequality16.7% (8)45.8% (22)14.6% (7)22.9% (11)2.4448
Cut defense spending dramatically (per the upcoming sequester)31.3% (15)37.5% (18)25.0% (12)6.3% (3)2.0648

Page: Topical Questions
7. How much do you think that Fed policy decisions are affected by an upcoming Presidential election? (Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight)
 answered question45
 
skipped question
4
 Response
Percent
Response
Count
heavily (i.e., favoritism for one candidate)
6.7%3
slightly (i.e., political news affects policymaker perceptions of the economy)
68.9%31
not at all
24.4%11

8. How partisan were the votes, in your perception, for the following pieces of legislation? (Tim Kane, StoryPoint.co)
 answered question43
 
skipped question
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 5 (extreme partisan divide)43210 (strongly bipartisan)Rating
Count
EGGTRA 2001 (Bush tax cuts)17.5% (7)30.0% (12)27.5% (11)12.5% (5)10.0% (4)2.5% (1)40
NCLB 2001 (No Child Left Behind)2.5% (1)10.0% (4)37.5% (15)7.5% (3)32.5% (13)10.0% (4)40
PPACA 2010 (Obamacare)72.5% (29)22.5% (9)5.0% (2)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)40
ARRA 2009 (Stimulus)26.2% (11)28.6% (12)28.6% (12)7.1% (3)9.5% (4)0.0% (0)42
Iraq 2002 (War Resolution)7.1% (3)23.8% (10)14.3% (6)23.8% (10)16.7% (7)14.3% (6)42
Medicare Part D 20037.3% (3)29.3% (12)19.5% (8)26.8% (11)12.2% (5)4.9% (2)41
Dodd-Frank 201026.2% (11)47.6% (20)11.9% (5)14.3% (6)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)42
DADT 2010 (Don't Ask Don't Tell Repeal)9.8% (4)63.4% (26)14.6% (6)7.3% (3)4.9% (2)0.0% (0)41
PATRIOT Act 20017.3% (3)7.3% (3)22.0% (9)12.2% (5)29.3% (12)22.0% (9)41

9. Currently, the per capita GDP of India is around $4,000. The p.c. GDP of China is around $9,000. (Both figures on a PPP-adjusted basis; see, e.g., PWT 7.0 data.) Over the next ten years, which economy do you expect to grow more strongly? (Ken Houghton, Angry Bear)
 answered question47
 
skipped question
2
 Response
Percent
Response
Count
India
29.8%14
China
36.2%17
Both will grow at roughly the same high rate
27.7%13
Both will stagnate
6.4%3

10. The Wall Street Journal reported that the advance number of seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims filed each week has been revised upward in 56 of the past 57 weeks. If this were a coin toss, the probability of that occurring would be 2,528,336,632,909,751 to 1, which makes the event extremely statistically unlikely. What is the primary reason behind why the BLS' collection and reporting of the initial data would appear to be so deeply flawed? (Ironman, Political Calculations)
 answered question35
 
skipped question
14
 Response
Percent
Response
Count
Seasonal adjustments that no longer reflect reality very well.
34.3%12
Inadequate counting practices by the 50+ state agencies that report this data weekly to the BLS.
45.7%16
Deliberate delays in reporting the full scale of the worst case increases in the number of claims recorded each week to create a rosier impression of the data. (Ironman, Political Calculations)
20.0%7
Other
 
10

11. Recession 2012? What is the likelihood and likely severity of a recession in 2012 in each of the following regions? (This question was asked in some form by Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Global Economic Trend Analysis, Andy Roth at Club for Growth, and James Picerno, CapitalSpectator.com)
 answered question47
 
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Odds of Recession
 
HighMediumLowResponse
Count
United States4.3% (2)31.9% (15)63.8% (30)47
Eurozone61.7% (29)31.9% (15)6.4% (3)47
Japan10.6% (5)44.7% (21)44.7% (21)47
China10.6% (5)36.2% (17)53.2% (25)47
Argentina38.1% (16)33.3% (14)28.6% (12)42
Developing Countries (non-China)2.3% (1)34.1% (15)63.6% (28)44
Severity
 
Depression / ImplosionSevere RecessionNormal RecessionMild RecessionResponse
Count
United States0.0% (0)6.5% (3)34.8% (16)58.7% (27)46
Eurozone2.1% (1)51.1% (24)40.4% (19)6.4% (3)47
Japan0.0% (0)6.5% (3)43.5% (20)50.0% (23)46
China4.3% (2)17.4% (8)30.4% (14)47.8% (22)46
Argentina7.3% (3)31.7% (13)34.1% (14)26.8% (11)41
Developing Countries (non-China)0.0% (0)11.6% (5)44.2% (19)44.2% (19)43

12. As far as environmental regulations are concerned, do you think that the federal government should [check all that apply] (David Zetland, Aguanomics):
 answered question41
 
skipped question
8
 Response
Percent
Response
Count
delegate more regulations to states
41.5%17
issue more regulations
19.5%8
revoke regulations
51.2%21
spend more time/money enforcing regulations
46.3%19
do nothing (just right)
7.3%3

13. An innovation project at HUDSON Institute (my new employer) asks which factors are the most important at driving technological innovation.
 answered question47
 
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2
 very importantimportantsomewhat importantnot importantRating
Count
Market scale and specialization19.6% (9)56.5% (26)19.6% (9)4.3% (2)46
Human capital / education51.1% (24)34.0% (16)14.9% (7)0.0% (0)47
Institutions (e.g. patents, liability, regulation)34.8% (16)45.7% (21)17.4% (8)2.2% (1)46
Culture of entrepreneurship & risk55.3% (26)29.8% (14)14.9% (7)0.0% (0)47
Centralization of government authority0.0% (0)13.0% (6)43.5% (20)43.5% (20)46
Cultural attitudes toward science27.7% (13)44.7% (21)23.4% (11)4.3% (2)47
Social safety, stability, and security21.7% (10)45.7% (21)19.6% (9)13.0% (6)46
The profit motive32.6% (15)52.2% (24)13.0% (6)2.2% (1)46
Other / Comment
 
5

14. Same question, different method. What factors are the most important in driving innovation? Divvy up 8 points however you choose, giving points to the factors you deem most important. You can give all 8 points to one factor, or 1 to each, or some kind of mix. Just please make sure the total is 8.
 answered question46
 
skipped question
3
Rating
 
0 (default)1 point2345678Response
Count
Market scale and specialization22.9% (8)54.3% (19)11.4% (4)2.9% (1)2.9% (1)0.0% (0)2.9% (1)0.0% (0)2.9% (1)35
Human capital / education2.5% (1)37.5% (15)40.0% (16)12.5% (5)0.0% (0)5.0% (2)0.0% (0)2.5% (1)0.0% (0)40
Institutions (e.g. patents, liability, regulation)10.8% (4)51.4% (19)27.0% (10)8.1% (3)2.7% (1)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)37
Cultural attitudes toward entrepreneurship & risk2.3% (1)39.5% (17)30.2% (13)18.6% (8)4.7% (2)2.3% (1)2.3% (1)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)43
Centralization of government authority75.0% (21)17.9% (5)3.6% (1)0.0% (0)3.6% (1)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)28
Cultural attitudes toward science18.2% (6)48.5% (16)27.3% (9)0.0% (0)3.0% (1)0.0% (0)3.0% (1)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)33
Social safety, stability, and security36.4% (12)36.4% (12)12.1% (4)6.1% (2)3.0% (1)0.0% (0)6.1% (2)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)33
The profit motive17.9% (7)38.5% (15)15.4% (6)15.4% (6)2.6% (1)10.3% (4)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)0.0% (0)39

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