2013 Texas Real Estate Business Lender Forecast

TREB Lender Survey

Dear Commercial Real Estate Lender or Financial Intermediary,

Texas Real Estate Business is conducting a brief online survey to gauge market conditions throughout the region, and we need your help. This survey should only take a few minutes to complete. Questions range from property sectors that your firm is most bullish on heading into 2013 to trends in deal volume to the outlook for interest rates.

We’re also sending separate surveys to brokers as well as owners/developers/managers in Texas and Oklahoma. The results will be collated and published in our January issue. Conducting these surveys is part of our mission at France Media to provide readers with indispensable information.

Sincerely,

Matt Valley
Editorial Director
Texas Real Estate Business

Question Title

* 1. Which of the following best describes your company? (Please mark all that apply)

Agency Lender /(GSEs)

Community Bank

Regional Bank

National Commercial Bank

Life Insurance Company

Mezzanine Lender

Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Banker

Mortgage REIT

Non-Bank Financial Institution

Pension Fund

Securitized Lender (CMBS)

Other (please specify)

Question Title

* 2. Check the box that best describes your job title:

President, Owner, Partner, Chairman of the Board, CEO

Chief Financial Officer, Chief Investment Officer

Real Estate Manager, Finance Manager, Other Manager, including General Manager

Banker, Investment Banker, Mortgage Banker/Broker, Portfolio Manager, Financial Investment Analyst

Other (please specify)

Question Title

* 3. Do you expect the total dollar amount of commercial and multifamily loans closed by your firm in Texas/Oklahoma in 2013 to increase, decrease, or remain the same?

Decrease

Increase

Stay the same

Question Title

* 4. If increase, by how much?

0% to 5%

6% to 10%

11% to 15%

16% to 20%

More than 20%

Question Title

* 5. If decrease, by how much?

0% to 5%

6% to 10%

11% to 15%

16% to 20%

More than 20%

Question Title

* 6. To what extent will each of the following factors affect the debt financing market for commercial real estate during the next 12 months? (1=No Impact, 5=Strong Impact)

	1	2	3	4	5
Fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac	Fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 1	Fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 2	Fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 3	Fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 4	Fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 5
State of the housing market	State of the housing market 1	State of the housing market 2	State of the housing market 3	State of the housing market 4	State of the housing market 5
Health of U.S. economy	Health of U.S. economy 1	Health of U.S. economy 2	Health of U.S. economy 3	Health of U.S. economy 4	Health of U.S. economy 5
State of CMBS market	State of CMBS market 1	State of CMBS market 2	State of CMBS market 3	State of CMBS market 4	State of CMBS market 5
Financial regulation reform (Dodd-Frank)	Financial regulation reform (Dodd-Frank) 1	Financial regulation reform (Dodd-Frank) 2	Financial regulation reform (Dodd-Frank) 3	Financial regulation reform (Dodd-Frank) 4	Financial regulation reform (Dodd-Frank) 5
Valuations for commercial real estate	Valuations for commercial real estate 1	Valuations for commercial real estate 2	Valuations for commercial real estate 3	Valuations for commercial real estate 4	Valuations for commercial real estate 5
Volume of distressed real estate	Volume of distressed real estate 1	Volume of distressed real estate 2	Volume of distressed real estate 3	Volume of distressed real estate 4	Volume of distressed real estate 5
Creditworthiness of tenants	Creditworthiness of tenants 1	Creditworthiness of tenants 2	Creditworthiness of tenants 3	Creditworthiness of tenants 4	Creditworthiness of tenants 5
Cost of capital	Cost of capital 1	Cost of capital 2	Cost of capital 3	Cost of capital 4	Cost of capital 5
Loan-to-value ratios	Loan-to-value ratios 1	Loan-to-value ratios 2	Loan-to-value ratios 3	Loan-to-value ratios 4	Loan-to-value ratios 5
Debt-service coverage ratios	Debt-service coverage ratios 1	Debt-service coverage ratios 2	Debt-service coverage ratios 3	Debt-service coverage ratios 4	Debt-service coverage ratios 5
Re-election of President Barack Obama	Re-election of President Barack Obama 1	Re-election of President Barack Obama 2	Re-election of President Barack Obama 3	Re-election of President Barack Obama 4	Re-election of President Barack Obama 5

Question Title

* 7. What property categories do you believe provide the most attractive investment opportunities for lenders in Texas/Oklahoma today? (Multiple answers permitted)

Suburban office

Downtown office

Medical Office

Retail mall

Retail grocery/drug-anchored center

Retail single tenant

Retail lifestyle/power center

Industrial

Hotel

Mixed-use

Multifamily

Seniors Housing

Self-storage

Student Housing

Other (please specify)

Question Title

* 8. What property categories do you believe provide the least attractive investment opportunities for lenders in Texas/Oklahoma today? (Multiple answers permitted)

Suburban office

Downtown office

Medical Office

Retail mall

Retail grocery/drug-anchored center

Retail single tenant

Retail lifestyle/power center

Industrial

Hotel

Mixed-use

Multifamily

Seniors Housing

Self-storage

Student Housing

Other (please specify)

Question Title

* 9. What is your projection for total domestic CMBS issuance in 2013?

Less than $30 billion

$30 billion to $39 billion

$40 billion to $49 billion

$50 billion to $59 billion

$60 billion to $69 billion

$70 billion to $79 billion

$80 billion to $89 billion

$90 billion to $99 billion

$100 billion or higher

Question Title

* 10. In percentage terms, please forecast the concentration of lending activity at your firm in Texas/Oklahoma in 2013? (Percentages must add up to 100%)

Construction financing (new development)

Acquisition financing

Renovation/redevelopment financing

Refinancing activity

Mezzanine financing

Bridge loans

Debtor-in-possession financing

Credit tenant lease financing

Question Title

* 11. Do you expect interest rates to increase, decrease or remain relatively unchanged during the next 12 months?

Increase

Decrease

Remain relatively unchanged

Uncertain

Question Title

* 12. What is your best guess as to where the 10-year Treasury yield will stand at the end of 2013?

3.5% or higher

3.25%

3.0%

2.75%

2.50%

2.25%

2.0%

1.75%

1.50%

1.25%

1.0% or less

Uncertain

Question Title

* 13. Do you have any comments that you want to share on the record regarding the state of the commercial real estate lending climate? If so, please type in your comments here and include your name, job title, company name, phone number and e-mail address. You can also leave an anonymous comment.