Simulating Language 2015, pre-reading 9 questions, part 1

Question Title

* 1. The weatherman tells me that tomorrow there is a 25% chance of rain. Assuming he is an accurate weather-forecaster, what is the probability that it will rain tomorrow?

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

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* 2. What is the probability that it will not rain tomorrow?

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

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* 3. Which of the following is not a probability?

-0.1

0

0.001

0.1

1

1.1

Question Title

* 4. Consider an unbiased, ‘fair’ dice. What is the probability that any roll of the dice will produce a 1? Note: in the notation used in the reading, we would write this probability as something like p(1 | fair-dice), i.e. the probability of getting a 1 given that we are rolling the fair dice.

For grammar puritans: consider an unbiased, ‘fair’ die*.
For D&Ders: it’s a D6.

0

1/6 (i.e. 1 in 6, or on average every 6th roll)

1/2 (i.e. 1 in 2, or on average every 2nd roll)

1

Question Title

* 5. What is the probability that it will roll a 6?

0

1/6

1/2

1

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* 6. What is the probability that it will roll a 3?

0

1/6

1/2

1

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* 7. What is the probability that it will roll a number higher than 3 (i.e. 4, 5 or 6)?

0

1/6

1/2

1

Question Title

* 8. How about if we roll the dice twice? What is the probability that it will produce a 6 then a 6?

0

1/36

1/6

1/4

1

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* 9. What is the probability that it will produce a 3 then a 5?

0

1/36

1/6

1/4

1

Question Title

* 10. What is the probability that it will produce a number higher than 3 on both rolls?

0

1/36

1/6

1/4

1