You are a marine property adjuster charged with minimizing the loss of cargo on three insured barges that sank yesterday off the coast of Australia. Each barge holds $200,000 worth of cargo, which will be lost if not salvaged within 72 hours. The owners of a local marine-salvage company give you two options both of which cost the same:
Plan A:  This plan will save the cargo of one the three barges worth $200,000.

Plan B:  This plan has a one-third probability of saving the cargo of all three barges, worth $600,000, but has a two-thirds probability of saving nothing. 

* 1. Which plan would you choose?

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