Bayes Rules! Chaper 1 Quiz Yourself

If I flip this coin over and over, roughly 50% will be Heads.

Heads and Tails are equally plausible.

Both a and b make sense.

If we observe the election over and over, candidate A will win roughly 90% of the time.

Candidate A is much more likely to win than to lose.

The pollster’s calculation is wrong. Candidate A will either win or lose, thus their probability of winning can only be 0 or 1.

You’re more confident in Kavya’s claim than Zuofu’s claim.

The evidence supporting Zuofu’s claim is just as strong as the evidence supporting Kavya’s claim.

What’s the chance that I actually have the disease?

If in fact I don’t have the disease, what’s the chance that I would’ve gotten this positive test result?