al Qaeda: One Year After Bin Laden

One year after Usama Bin Laden's death, this survey asks respondents what has changed in the world of terrorism since the demise of al Qaeda's founder. Below are several questions designed to gain the collective insights of terrorism/counterterrorism experts and enthusiasts.

Unlike last year's survey which attempted to gain a collective judgment on the future of al Qaeda, this survey hopes to see if the crowd can determine what has changed in terrorism and al Qaeda since Bin Laden's death. With that purpose, this survey is much quicker to answer and is designed to take about three to five minutes.

Most questions are dichotomous (yes/no, more/less, etc.). After many of these questions, I'll ask you how confident you are in your response. The scale will always be between 1 and 10. On this scale, for example, a score of 1 will represent no confidence/completely uncertain, a 5 would represent mild confidence and a 10 would represent high confidence/absolute certainty. For example, if you are particularly confident in your answer to one question, you might place your confidence at 8-10. And if there is a question you are less certain about, you might rate your confidence at a 2-4. The goal with the confidence questions is to identify a) what issues we are collectively confident about and b) what questions we are collectively less confident about - suggesting the need for further research.

Thank you for supporting this survey and contributing to the collective assessment of al Qaeda. The results of this survey will be posted over the next several weeks at

Here's the first question.....

Question Title

* 1. Since Usama Bin Laden's death, has the Taliban been more reluctant or less reluctant to make peace with the Karzai government in Afghanistan?

Question Title

* 2. How confident are you in your response to question #1 reference the Taliban?
[On a Scale from 1 (low) to 10 (high)]

1 = No Confidence/Completely Uncertain
5 = Mild Confidence/Neither Absolutely Certain nor Completely Uncertain
10 = High Confidence/Absolutely Certain