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Vital Knowledge February 2022 Survey
1.
The current 2022 SPX EPS estimate is ~$225. What do you think of that number?
Too high
Too low
Just right
2.
The current 2023 SPX EPS estimate is ~$245. What do you think of that number?
Too high
Too low
Just right
3.
How many rate hikes in aggregate do you anticipate from the Fed this year?
75bp
100bp
125bp
150bp
175bp
More than 175bp
4.
What do you think the Fed does on 3/16?
Hikes rates 25bp
Hikes rates 50bp
Doesn't hike rates
Hikes rates more than 50bp
5.
How quickly do you think the Fed will shrink its balance sheet?
$50B per month
$75B per month
$100B per month
$125B per month
More than $125B per month
6.
Do you think the Fed will shrink its balance sheet by just ending reinvestments or also by selling assets outright?
Just ending reinvestments
Ending reinvestments and selling assets outright
7.
At what level do you think the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet?
$7-7.5T
$6.75-7T
$6.5-6.75T
$6-6.5T
$5.5-6T
Below $5.5T
8.
If Russia-Ukraine is resolved without any violence and Moscow avoids draconian sanctions, where do you see Brent trading?
$90-95
$85-$90
$80-85
Below $80
Above $95
9.
The Jan headline CPI came in at +7.5%. Where do you see the headline CPI by Sept 2022?
Above 7%
Between 6-7%
Between 5-6%
Between 4-5%
Between 3-4%
Below 3%
10.
Do you think the ECB increases its deposit rate this year?
Yes
No
11.
Do you think Republicans will capture control of either the House or Senate in Nov 2022?
Yes
No
12.
What size Build Back Better bill do you think Dems will be able to pass before the mid-terms?
$0 (they won't pass anything)
$250-500B
$500-750B
$750B-1T
More than $1T
13.
How do you see Russia/Ukraine getting resolved?
Russia launches a full invasion of Ukraine
Russia withdraws its troops fully from the border after receiving reassurances about Ukraine not joining NATO
Russia withdraws some troops but keeps a significant number in place and continues directing threatening rhetoric toward Ukraine but never resorts to overt violence
Russia recognizes breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine
14.
Which of the following overhangs do you consider the biggest headwind for equities?
Monetary tightening crimping equity multiples
Monetary and fiscal tightening hurting economic growth
Inflation failing to materially moderate by CQ4
Geopolitical tensions escalating further (Russia/Ukraine, Iran, North Korea, etc.)
COVID making a resurgence
Corporate margin forecasts proving too elevated, forcing EPS estimate cuts
15.
If you had to own stocks in one country/region between now and the end of the year, which would it be?
US
EU
China
Japan
Russia
India
Other
16.
If you had to own one US sector between now and the end of the year, which would be it?
Reopening stocks (travel/leisure)
Banks
Energy
Blue Chip "FANG" tech super-caps
SMID-cap growth/momentum tech stocks
Safe havens (staples/utilities/traditional telecoms)
Home builders
Consumer discretionary (retail)
17.
How satisfied are you with the Vital Knowledge product?
Very satisfied
Satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
Current Progress,
0 of 17 answered