CPF Sample Exam 2 Question Title * 1. A Demand pattern can be distorted by all the following except: The incoming of competitive products Changes in the production plans Marketing promotions Bad weather, power outages or other unusual events Question Title * 2. Which of the following is not a forecast error metric? Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Mean Squared Error Customer service Question Title * 3. Which of the following is not a potential source of forecast error? Management's distrust in forecasts Error in the data Seasonal and cyclical elements Change in the promotional plan Question Title * 4. The best way to estimate the range of percent error is to compute: Mean of absolute percentage errors Median of absolute percentage errors Standard deviation of absolute percentage errors Weighted mean absolute percentage errors Question Title * 5. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE): Tells us whether or not you use the most sophisticated models Gives us an indication of how much error you can tolerate Provides a measure of the average error Tells us whether the error resulted from over- or under-forecasting Question Title * 6. Holt-Winter's exponential smoothing method is based on: One smoothing equation Two smoothing equations Three smoothing equations Four smoothing equations Question Title * 7. Holt-Winter's exponential smoothing method is used to account for: Trend in the data Trend and seasonality in the data Seasonality in the data Auto correlation in the data Question Title * 8. Seasonal indices of sales for the Sorin Mountain Resort are 120 for January and 80 for December. If December sales for 2013 were $5,000, a reasonable estimate of sales for January 2014 would be: $4,800 $6,000 $7,500 $10,000 Question Title * 9. Annual sales of a product in 2012 was 2,400 units, but in July 2012 it sold 300 units. What was the seasonal index for that product in July? 8.00 0.67 150.00 60.00 Question Title * 10. In single exponential smoothing, if the alpha value is 0.9, it will give a weight to the value of period t-3: 0.9 0.09 0.009 0.0009 Question Title * 11. To prepare a forecast with a time series model, you need to know all of the following except: Amount to be spent on advertisement Data pattern Seasonal and cyclical factors Outliers and/or structural change(s) in the data Question Title * 12. The noise (randomness) in data generally: Increases at the aggregated levels, i.e. the higher the level of aggregation, the higher the noise level Decreases at the aggregated levels, i.e. the higher the level of aggregation, the lower the noise level Is not affected by any level of aggregation None of the above Question Title * 13. In time series data, outliers are: Values that differ from their forecasts Values that slightly differ from the median value Values that differ from the standard deviation of the actuals Values that are significantly higher or lower than normal values Question Title * 14. Forecasts generally improve by: Using the relevant historical data Going as far back as data are available Using the original raw data to preserve the integrity of the data All of the above Question Title * 15. By plotting the data, we can very often: Observe and evaluate trend and seasonality in the data Observe and evaluate outliers in the data Observe and evaluate structural changes in the data All of the above Question Title * 16. In analyzing a data set for forecasting, you should consider: The variations in the data The presence of outliers The presence of structural changes All of the above Question Title * 17. In time series modeling, if the actual value in a historical period is missing, the best thing to do is: To eliminate that period To estimate a normalized value and replace the missing value with that To assign that period the same value as the prior period Do nothing so as to avoid data corruption Question Title * 18. The fluctuations that occur regularly and periodically are called: Trend Cyclical Irregular (random variation) Seasonal Question Title * 19. The selection of a model depends, among other things, on: The number of observations The pattern exhibited by the data Whether or not there is a cause-and-effect relation in the data All of the above Question Title * 20. The hold out period is used for: Preparing a forecast Determining variations in the data Testing a model All of the above Question Title * 21. In selecting an appropriate forecasting model, the following approach is suggested: Study the data Determine the pattern in the data Use the data of the hold-out period to test different models All of the above Question Title * 22. Forecast error is generally less important to a company if: The product cost is very low and the demand volume is also very low The error results from over-forecasting, and the profit margin is very high Lead time is very short, permitting rapid adjustment to a change in demand All of the above Question Title * 23. If Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is 10%, you can expect: Every error you experience in the future will most likely be 10% Every error you experience in the future will most likely be higher than 10% Every error you experience in the future will most likely be lower than 10% The average error you will experience in the future will be close to 10% Question Title * 24. Using historical data, the forecaster at Dell International computed the trend value for November 2013, which came to $400 mil. Given the seasonal index for November is 110, the forecast value will be: 440 44,000 36 3.6 Question Title * 25. The following are seasonal index numbers for sales of Keenan Chocolates:January -- 120 February -- 90 March -- 100 April -- 108 May -- 102 June -- 110 July -- 105 August -- 90 September -- 85 October -- 100 November -- 110 December -- 80 Total annual sales for KC in 2013 are forecasted at $120 million. Based on the seasonal indices above, the combined sales in the first three months of 2013 would be: $10 million $1.2 million $30 million $31 million Question Title * 26. Personal Information Name Company Email Address If you would like to continue on to Sample Exam 3, please click here. Just remember to click Submit for your results! Submit
