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* 1. How many years have you practiced law?

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* 2. Assume that a client gives you a twenty-minute summary of a new contract dispute. They explain the clause at issue, the basic facts, and the pros and cons of the case. You call the other side’s counsel and she gives you a five-minute explanation of the way her client sees it.

With just that information, you tell your client what you think the likely outcome of the dispute will be. What’s your confidence level that your prediction will be right within a reasonable range (+/- 20%)?

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* 3. Now assume that in your next discussion with the client, they
  • give you the few most material e-mails;
  • summarize the key participants’ recollections; and 
  • based on your prodding, acknowledge more negative facts. 
With just that additional information, you tell your client what you think the likely outcome of the dispute will be. What’s your confidence level that your prediction will be right within a reasonable range (+/- 20%)?

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* 4. Now assume that the dispute goes to litigation and you take full discovery and the court or arbitrator denies both sides’ summary judgment motions.  With that additional information, you tell your client what you think the likely outcome of the dispute will be.  What’s your confidence level that your prediction will be right within a reasonable range (+/- 20%)?

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