Primary season is heating up in the United States, but in the United Kingdom a major election has just come to a close.
After the Survey Research team at SurveyMonkey successfully predicted the general election in May, they took a shot at a tougher challenge: predicting the winner of the Labour Party’s leadership election.
It was the first time in history that the Labour Party opened up voting for its leadership to the general public. That meant no one knew exactly who was going to vote, making it even more difficult to call.
In the end, far left candidate Jeremy Corbyn won a resounding victory in the Labour Party’s leadership election, but how’d SurveyMonkey do?
Despite the challenges, our SurveyMonkey poll of nearly 1,000 eligible voters successfully predicted the win.
Official Election Results
- Jeremy Corbyn 60%
- Andy Burnham 19%
- Yvette Cooper 17%
- Liz Kendall 5%
- Jeremy Corbyn 53%
- Andy Burnham 23%
- Yvette Cooper 14%
- Liz Kendall 10%
Corbyn’s opposition to austerity measures may have buoyed him in the election. More than half of his supporters (51%) highlighted poverty and inequality as the country’s top concerns.
Immigration was less important to Corbyn supporters. Just 16% singled out immigration as the top issue, far below what it is nationally.
However, among the more than 8,000 British adults we surveyed, immigration skyrocketed to the top of the agenda with 35% naming it as the country’s biggest issue—more than twice the proportion who named the economy as the primary concern.
Not only did our poll predict the win, but it also revealed some key voter insights that might interest (or worry) candidates in the United States.
Presidential candidates take note: 6 in 10 Labour supporters said they’d prefer a leader who represents the traditional values of the party to the leader who has a better chance of winning the next national election.
Remember, that’s despite having suffered a major defeat in the May national election. Among Corbyn supporters, that number jumps to 84%.
If you want to nerd out on the actual results, take a look at the data.
Keep a look out on the SurveyMonkey blog for more exciting election and political insights to come!