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Where the Presidential Race Stands, Explained in 4 Charts

Where the Presidential Race Stands, Explained in 4 Charts

john_kasich_bows_outThe Indiana primary has left the presidential election field in a much different state than it was just days ago.

Ted Cruz and John Kasich are out of the GOP primary race. Hillary Clinton is closer to clinching the Democratic nomination than ever.

That’s right, it looks like Americans will have Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to choose from come November.

It’s a lot to take in, so here are 4 boiled-down graphs that explain the state of the race.

Most Americans thought Cruz and Kasich should get out

If you ask the public, Senator Cruz and Governor Kasich probably made the right choice to drop out of the race.

In this week’s SurveyMonkey Election Tracking poll, we asked voters who are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents whether they want Ted Cruz and John Kasich to stay in the race or drop out.

Last night, 36% of them got their wish, as Cruz ended his campaign for the presidency after losing the Indiana primary. More (54%) wanted John Kasich to drop out, and the governor announced his decision to end his campaign the day after Cruz.cruz_kasich_graph


At this point in the race, we have two presumptive (or nearly presumptive) nominees for both parties: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican.

Despite being the likely winners of their respective party nods, neither candidate is particularly popular among voters.

Only 35% have a favorable view of Trump, and a whopping 50% describe their impression of him as “strongly unfavorable.”

Clinton’s numbers are slightly better, but not by much. Just 4 in 10 have a favorable view of Secretary Clinton, outweighed by 44% who have a “strongly unfavorable” view.


Fit for the presidency?

Keep in mind, it’s not just favorability ratings that determine the next president.

Generally, voters want to vote for a president who seems…presidential. At this point in the campaign, neither Clinton nor Trump break the 50% mark on this measure.

More than two-thirds of voters think that Trump does NOT have the personality and temperament to serve effectively as president, while voters are more split about Clinton: 46% say she has the personality to be president, compared to 50% who say she does not. temperament_graph

Trump vs. Clinton: Where does the general election stand?

What does this mean for the general election? While we are a few months from the general contest, when hypothetically pitted against each other, Clinton beats Trump by 6 percentage points. But a large swath of voters are undecided (18%). We’ll keep an eye on this head-to-head match-up now that the candidates are all but finalized.


Bonus chart!

By the way, we also asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents what Bernie Sanders should do about his campaign. Despite his win in Indiana last night, he still has a next-to-impossible chance at overtaking Clinton in pledged delegates.

But, if he listens to the will of the people (or at least to Democratic registered voters), it seems like we’ll still have him around for at least another month, and maybe all the way through the convention. Anything–to a point–could happen!


Questions for Laura? Let her know–you know where to go, data fans.


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