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Election Tracking Takeaways: How Would Trump-Hillary Play out?

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Election Tracking Takeaways: How Would Trump-Hillary Play out?

SurveyMonkey Hillary ClintonIt’s not too early to start thinking about the general election.

True, nobody has technically clinched a nomination in either party, and Tuesday’s primary in Wisconsin didn’t really serve to clarify much. Despite an impressive string of wins, Bernie Sanders is going to have an uphill battle gathering enough delegates to overtake Hillary Clinton.

And while Ted Cruz won a much-needed victory over Donald Trump in Wisconsin, support for Trump is still 17 points higher than Cruz (45% to 28%) among registered voters who identify or lean Republican.

Anything could happen, but it’s still important to start taking a look at the most likely matchups for the general election.

So how would that play out? SurveyMonkey’s Election Tracking poll suggests that the answer is “pretty well for Clinton.”

Young voters: In the primaries, Clinton has problems swaying younger voters from Bernie Sanders, but her polling numbers suggest that they’d come back to her in the general elections.

  • Among 18-to-24-year-olds, Clinton leads Trump by 25 percentage points (50% to 26%). Against Cruz she leads by a much more modest 7 points (42% to 35%).
  • Among 25-to-34-year-olds, the gap is even larger. Clinton leads Trump by a full 33 percentage points (54% to 21%). Against Cruz, she leads by 19 points (46% to 27%).
  • Voters age 45 and older, on the other hand, tend to favor Trump over Clinton by 3 to 4 percentage points. Trump just slightly outperforms Cruz in this category.

Screen Shot 2016-04-07 at 3.24.23 PM

Gender: Clinton has always had an advantage with female voters in a general election match-up. And while her lead isn’t quite as stark as with younger voters, it’s still strong.

  • Women prefer Clinton to Trump by 25 points (52% to 26%) while she trails Trump slightly with male voters (38% to 42%).
  • The numbers are similarly tough for Cruz, who lags behind Clinton a full 20 percentage points (48% to 28%) among women and leads her by just 1 percentage point among men (39% to 38%).

Stay tuned for more Election Tracking insights in next week’s post!

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