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One Finding That Shows the Silver Lining in Hillary Clinton’s Polling Numbers

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One Finding That Shows the Silver Lining in Hillary Clinton’s Polling Numbers

SurveyMonkey ElectionsIt’s been a tough week for Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump has won the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination while Clinton and Bernie Sanders battle over California and the other remaining states in the Democratic primary.

That leaves Trump without much challenge or criticism from his rivals and Clinton in a fierce contest with Sanders, who continues to hammer Clinton with negative advertising and in the media.

Add to that the attacks from Trump and renewed focus on Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, and it becomes clear that she’s got a lot on her plate.

It’s hard to know whether these factors are having an effect on each candidate’s polling numbers, but Trump has gained on Clinton since gaining his status of presumptive nominee in early May.

Now the numbers show Clinton only slightly ahead in a general election matchup. It’s 47 to 45%—the closest it’s ever been.

This week almost as many voters (47%) say Trump can win as say Clinton can win the general election. That’s a big change from last week, when the difference was nine percentage points in favor of Clinton (51 to 42%).

Is there any silver lining for Democrats here? Well yes, actually.

Americans are seeing cracks within the GOP

While things may look grim now for Democrats, the general election is still 6 months away, and the long game isn’t looking as good for Republicans. Americans are seeing wider—and more enduring—divisions in the Republican party than they do in the Democratic party.

GOP_divide

Most people see both parties as divided, but registered voters are less likely to see Republicans as “united now” (9%) than Democrats (16%). But the bigger difference is that 55% of voters think Republicans will still be divided in November, compared to 38% who say the same about Democrats.

The way voters view their own parties is perhaps even more instructive. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 34% say their party will still be divided in November. Meanwhile just 23% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents say so about their own party.

Another 55% say their party will unite by November, while just 20% believe it will remain  divided. Not surprisingly, most of the Democrats who believe their party will remain divided (65 %) support Bernie Sanders against Hillary Clinton in the primary.

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