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Oscar Winners—How did SurveyMonkey Audience’s Predictions Stack Up?

Oscar Winners—How did SurveyMonkey Audience’s Predictions Stack Up?

The Academy Awards—the event where critically acclaimed films face off against box office hits. Every year after the winners are announced, the same question inevitably arises: are Academy voters out of touch with the movie going public?

A recent profile of the members of the Academy conducted by the Los Angeles Times, revealed that Oscar voters are 94% Caucasian and 77% male, with a median age of 62. Members of the Academy are meant to represent the most accomplished men and women working in film industry, but clearly these demographics are hugely inconsistent with the with the audiences who watch these films.

So, in the spirit of award season, we decided to let the public try its hand at voting for the Academy Awards. Last week, we revealed the results of our own Oscar survey. Using SurveyMonkey Audience to get a general population sample, we collected over 500 responses to determine winners in the major categories. In the chart below check out how our Audience respondents choices compared to the Academy’s.

Category SurveyMonkey Audience Prediction Academy Award Winners
Best Picture “The Help” (27.1%) “The Artist”
Best Director Martin Scorsese, “Hugo” (39.2%) “The Artist”, Michael Hazanavicius
Best Actor George Clooney, “The Descendants” (35.4%) Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Best Actress Viola Davis, “The Help” (35.6%) Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Best Supporting Actor Jonah Hill, “Moneyball” (27.5%) Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Best Supporting Actress Octavia Spencer, “The Help” (35.9%) Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Best Adapted Screenplay “Moneyball”, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Story by Stan Chervin (22.4%) “The Descendants”, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon
Best Original Screenplay “The Artist”, Michael Hazanavicius (33%) “Midnight in Paris”, Woody Allen
Best Animated Feature Film “Puss in Boots” (33.6%) “Rango”
Best Original Song “Real in Rio”, from “Rio” (53.2%) “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets”

And since many people’s favorite films of the year might not have made the list of nominations, we also asked respondents to share their favorite film from 2011. Then, using our text analysis feature we surfaced the most common responses.

How did your favorite films fare?  Have you used SurveyMonkey Audience to make any interesting predictions? Sound off in the comments section below!

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  • Michael C.

    Looks like the Oscar voters were impressed with the silent movie – brought back memories of thier childhood.

    So the public got 1 out of 10 correct. Is that because they saw all those movies and felt they were the best, or were influenced by the advertising?

    • Hi Michael, great question! In each of the major categories, the respondents were asked which film/actor/screenplay etc. they felt should win at this year’s Academy Awards. This was simply an exercise to see how the general population would vote if they were members of the Academy. And as you can see, they would vote quite differently! Thanks for the comment.

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