The Set Up
It is now t1. I will experience agonizing pain in my right pinky at t10 unless I take at t5 either the anesthetizing pill or the amputating pill. If I take the anesthetizing pill at t5, I’ll be anesthetized at t10. If I take the amputating pill at t5, I’ll be missing my right pinky at t10. Either way, I’ll avoid experiencing agonizing pain in my right pinky at t10. Assume that my obtaining the anesthetizing pill is costless, but that it is only be obtained now. Assume that my obtaining the amputating pill will be costly; I can obtain it only at t4 and only by either purchasing it for $20,000 or by trading ITEM in for it. Lastly, assume that I can purchase ITEM only at t1 at a cost of $10,000. There are then five salient states of affairs:
(1) I obtain the anesthetizing pill now and take it at t5, thereby avoiding agony at t10 without incurring any costs.
(2) I purchase ITEM now for $10,000, trade it in for the amputating pill at t4, and take the amputating pill at t5, thereby avoiding agony at t10 at the cost of $10,000 and my right pinky.
(3) I purchase the amputating pill at t4 for $20,000 and take it at t5, thereby avoiding agony at t10 at the cost of $20,000 and my right pinky.
(4) I take neither pill at t5 and suffer agony at t10.
(5) I take both pills at t5 in which case I immediately die.
Assume that the states of affairs rank in the order given. Thus assume that the agony is so great that (2) and (3) are both better than (4). Assume that ITEM is only potentially good as a means to obtaining the amputating pill at t4. Otherwise, it’s completely valueless. Assume that everything else is equal.
Now suppose that, as a matter of fact, I’m presently forming both the intention to refrain from obtaining the anesthetizing pill and the intention to instead purchase ITEM, trade it in for the amputating pill, and take the amputating pill at t5. And, assume that as matter of fact, I will follow through with whatever intention I now form and that, therefore, I will not obtain the anesthetizing pill. It’s not that I couldn’t now respond appropriately to my reasons and form the intention to obtain the anesthetizing pill and thereby obtain it; it’s just that, as a matter fact, I’m not responding appropriately to my reasons and so I’m not forming the intention to obtain the anesthetizing pill and so I’m not going to obtain the anesthetizing pill.