2013 DABE Economic Survey Forecast

1. DABE 2012 Economic Forecast Contest

 
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1. Your Name & Organization
2. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Close at Year End 2013 (Year End 2012 close was 13,105; source Reuters / WSJ)
3. 30 Year Bond Yield at the end of November 2013. (End of November 2012 Yield was 2.79%; source: Reuters/WSJ)
4. Closing Price of Gold (COMEX) at Year End 2013 in $ per Troy oz. (Year End 2012 closing price was $1,674; source: Reuters/WSJ)


5. 2013 Year End price of Crude Oil - Light Sweet Pit (NYMEX) in $ per barrel. (Year End price in 2012 $91.64; source: Reuters/WSJ)

6. 2013 Year end price of Natural Gas - Henry Hub Pit (NYMEX) in $ per million Btu. (Year end price in 2012 was $3.36; source Reuters/WSJ)
7. Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Price, regular grade, at Year End 2013 in $ per gallon. (12/31/12 price was $3.30; source: EIA)
8. Value of the Dollar Relative to the Euro in $ per Euro at Year End in 2013. (Year End 2012 was $1.32; source: Reuters/WSJ)
9. U.S. Annual Average Total Non-farm payroll employment percentage growth in 2013 - PreBenchmark growth after December Prelim release; source: Current Employment Statistics (CES / BLS). (In 2012, Annual Average wage & salary employment (CES) growth was 1.7 percent)
10. U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate, Seasonally-adjusted in December 2013 (PreBenchmark). (December 2012 rate was 7.8%; source: BLS)

11. Colorado Civilian Unemployment Rate, Seasonally-adjusted in December 2013 (PreBechmark. (Rate was 7.6% in December 2012; source: BLS)
12. 2013 U.S. Real GDP estimate of annualized growth after BEA "advance estimate" for Q4. (2012 was 2.2% was advance estimate, source: BEA)
13. 3rd Quarter Colorado Personal Income change from previous year, BEA advance estimate Q3 2013. (Q3 2012 was 3.9%; source: BEA)
14. U.S. Consumer Price Index - CPI-U - 12-month percent change reported by BLS in December 2013. (December 2012 12-month % change was 2.1%; source: BLS)

15. Denver Metro CPI-U, percent change in first half of 2013 from first half of 2012. (1st half 2012 change from 1st half 2011 was 1.8%; source: BLS)
16. U.S. Singe Family Existing Home Inventories (Month's Supply) in December 2013. (December 2012 was 4.4 months; source: National Association of Realtors)
17. 30-year, conventional Fixed Mortgage Rate in December 2013. (December 2012 rate was 3.35%; source: National Association of Realtors)

18. Who will win the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics? (Alvin Roth & Lloyd Shapley were the 2012 winners)
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