Clinical Trial Brain Teaser

1. Questions

 
Sometimes, not all the critical data from a trial are available and you need to do some math to calculate risk. Here’s an example from a recent article published in the press. * There were 2,643 people in a study comparing naproxen to Celebrex. 702 took naproxen, 1057 took placebo, 704 took Celebrex. * There were a total of 70 cardiovascular events among all the study participants. * The proportion of people having an event was 50% higher in the naproxen group compared to placebo. * There was no increased risk for people taking Celebrex compared to placebo. You can assume that the Celebrex risk was the same as the placebo risk. Using the above information, please answer the following questions. Good luck!
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1. Calculate the likely magnitude of the naproxen risk, i.e., what percent of people taking naproxen experienced a cardiovascular event compared to people taking placebo?
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2. What would these numbers be if no (0) people taking Celebrex in this trial experienced a cardiovascular event?
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